Since my last post was about snow, I thought that this one could be about ice. This morning the porch screens were covered in frost, the usual sign that moisture is escaping the lake as the waters cool down. Sure enough, once the foggy air began to clear, we could see that ice was forming. My initial view looked as though it was about twenty feet of shelf ice in front of us, and then open waters. But we are seeing a bit more clearly with every moment that raises the sun higher. For all intents and purposes, it definitely looks like the lake could freeze over completely today.
Our morning low was -18. The few weeks leading up to this have been very windy, allowing the lake waters to mix and cool off. A further mark in favor of early ice is the fact that the lake overall never really warmed up all that much last summer. It was a late ice-out, and those who braved the swimming often told me of how chilly it felt. It's been a while since the lake froze in November. I won't sign off yet on it being definite, but it's looking highly probable.
Happy Thanksgiving to you!